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The Fragmentation of Society Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter. The Fragmentation of Society. The Future of Work.

The End of Cancer. Angst in America. Denver, Lugano, and Hong Kong. Lately, my life has been completely packed with speeches, meetings, and in- depth, often lengthy, conversations.

Plus ongoing research and writing, of course. It all culminated Thursday afternoon at the beginning of a business meeting with the leadership team from a firm that will become a significant new business partner. At the very beginning of the meeting, the head of the firm leaned over to me and asked, “What’s on the top of your mind? What are you thinking about?” The previous night we had a small group of about 1. What keeps you up at night?”It has become an emotional question for me, because the answer does not come easily, is complex, and can be more than a little unsettling. It is, however, evolving out of the research and writing I’m doing on my new book, The Age of Transformation. Whether audiences and readers agree with my answer or not, it is not a feel- good message, which is somewhat frustrating because I’m the biggest long- term optimist in the room.

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But I acknowledge that what I am talking about suggests that the ride between today and the long- term happy ending is going to be more than a bit bumpy. This week’s letter is going to be a passionate summary of my answer. In form, it will be something like a conversation between you and me, sitting in your living room or mine, or in a restaurant, maybe sipping an adult beverage, thinking through the future together, and wondering at how the world is transforming in front of our eyes. In part, the impetus for this letter was a video I did with Patrick Cox last week, one in a four- part series that Patrick is doing called “Riding the Gray Tsunami.” We had a candid conversation about the future that lasted an hour, though our outstanding moderator and editor Jonathan Roth, one of our team members, will likely edit it to about 3.

Patrick’s other guests will be Dr. Mike Roizen, the chief wellness officer at the Cleveland Clinic; Aubrey de Grey, the chief science officer of SENS Research Foundation and one of the true experts on longevity science; and finally, our friend Jim Mellon, self- made British billionaire and avid biotech investor. You can sign up to participate here.

You really don’t want to miss this. Now let’s jump to the letter. The Fragmentation of Society.

In the interest of brevity, let’s take it is a given that we’re going to see massive technological change in the next 2. In fact, we will see more change – and improvement – in the next 2.

Think where we were 1. That much and more is going to happen in the next two decades. Global society really is going to transform that fast. Let’s start with some good news. In 1. 82. 0 some 9. By 1. 99. 0 the figure was 3. Forty percent of those who remain impoverished live in just two countries, Nigeria and India, both of which are growing rapidly and will see their extreme poverty significantly decrease in the next 2.

There is research to show that, on a global basis, the poor are getting richer faster than any other group. However, if you look around the US or Europe, that is not the conclusion you come to. But Africa or Asia? Absolutely. Let’s be clear: The Industrial Age and free- market capitalism, for all of its bumps and warts, has lifted more people out of poverty and extended more lives than has any other single development. The collapse of communism has been a great boon to humanity (even if it is still talked about favorably in Western universities). Because of where the emerging- market economies are in the development cycle, they have the potential for vast, rapid improvement in the lives of their people.

But most of my readers do not live in the emerging markets. We live in the developed markets; and here, some of the outcomes of the Age of Transformation will not be so comfortable. Let’s start with this chart (hat tip, Downtown Josh Brown). Obviously, the rig count in US oilfields is rising rapidly – no surprise there. But distressingly, the number of oilfield workers is continuing to fall.

How can this be? There is an answer to that conundrum in the long article that is the source of this chart and others I’ll use later. There is a new robotic machine called an Iron Roughneck that reduces the human labor required to connect pipe from a crew of 2. And those jobs were quite high- paying.

Here’s a picture of this new robotic roughneck. Fifteen workers per site at well over $1. Does that machine look like it cost more than a few million? I bet it amortizes pretty quickly, and that’s why it is being rapidly adopted. Now look back at the chart.

The amazing thing is that this transformation happened in two years; it didn’t take a generation or even half a generation. You were an oilfield worker with what you thought was potentially a lifetime of steady, well- paying – if dangerous, nasty, and dirty – work. And then BOOM! The jobs just simply disappeared. Your on- the- job experience doesn’t translate to any other industries very easily, and now you and your family are on the skids. I could actually spend this entire letter talking about the amazing transformation of the oilfield. Oil production is now a technology business. Computers and artificial intelligence are used in abundance in the oilfield.

Future wells are going to be a magnitude more productive and less expensive. There are oilfield operators here in Dallas running around with pro formas, raising money, talking about how they can do very well at $4.

And with oil at $5. Just with fewer workers. From the report on the Iron Roughneck we get the following alarming quote. Note that the report is full of links to academic research. While I don’t like the author’s conclusions, his work is at least well researched). A landmark 2. 01. John] even looked at the impact of just industrial robots on jobs from 1.

During that 1. 4- year period of time, the number of industrial robots quadrupled and between 3. And as the authors [Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo] noted, “Interestingly, and perhaps surprisingly, we do not find positive and offsetting employment gains in any occupation or education groups.” In other words, the jobs were not replaced with new jobs. It’s expected that our industrial robot workforce will quadruple again by 2. MIT research – John] to 7 robots per 1,0. In Toledo and Detroit it’s already 9 robots per 1,0. Using Acemoglu’s and Restropo’s findings, that translates to a loss of up to 3. Remember, we’re talking about industrial robots only, not all robots, and not any software, especially not AI.

So what we can expect from all technology combined is undoubtedly larger than the above estimates. Automation has been happening right under everyone’s noses, but people are only beginning to really talk about the potential future dangers of automation reducing the incomes of large percentages of the population. In the US, the most- cited estimate is the loss of half of all existing jobs by the early 2.

You can find people who estimate that technology will eliminate as many as two billion jobs, while also creating a large number of jobs – but nowhere near as fast. I don’t buy those extreme estimates, as I think they amount to sensationalism, but if you want to predict 3. US by the middle of the 2. I’m not going to argue with you. How many jobs will be created?

We’ll get to that in a minute. The Future of Work. People frequently talk about the loss of trucking and taxi jobs that will result from the automation of driving. Rethink. X, in a 7.

US will be Taa. S (transportation as a service) by 2. The good news is that the average family will save $5,6. Americans’ pockets. Think of all the time that will be freed for activities other than driving, not to mention the traffic jams that will be reduced. The authors believe that freeing time now spent commuting to work, plus faster transport times, will lead to an increase in GDP of between $5.